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2024 T10 AE AELC1103 University English Entry Course 10
Core Text
Adapted from:
Takada, M, Koranyi, D, Ottinger, R, Fu, B & Wang P 2021, ‘Accelerating the Energy Transformation’, in Kakar, N, Popovski, V and Robinson NA (eds.) Fulfilling the Sustainable Development Goals: On a Quest for a Sustainable World, London: Routledge, pp. 257-262, <https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003144274>
Chapter 17: Accelerating the Energy Transformation
The Centrality of Energy for Sustainable Development: A Global Overview
1. Energy is at the very heart of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Delivering on Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 has the potential to spur progress across virtually all the other SDGs: poverty eradication, achieving gender equality, progress on climate change mitigation and adaptation, ensuring food security, improving health and education, building sustainable cities and communities, delivering clean water and sanitation, creating jobs, and boosting innovation are all dependent on sustainable energy solutions. The Global Sustainable Development Report published in 2019 identified energy transformation with universal access as one of the six required transformative pathways for sustainable development.
2. Reliance on fossil fuels for energy is also a major cause of air, water, and chemical pollution that is deadly to humans and the major cause of greenhouse gas emissions responsible for record species extinction, making it unsustainable, unreliable, and unsafe and thus in direct conflict with achievement of the SDG 7 goals. They also are expensive fuels, unaffordable by many of the low-income people of the world, especially when health costs and early deaths caused by the pollution are accounted for. For example, a pioneer study by the Pace Energy & Climate Center, confirmed by studies by the US Department of Energy and the European Union, found that coal is the most expensive energy resource due to these externality costs, paid by consumers, but not reflected in the coal price.
3. Achieving the SDG 7 objectives is essential for meeting the climate change mitigation goals of the Paris Climate Change accords. Lack of progress toward SDG 7 could contribute to the destructive impacts of climate change—heating of the planet, increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes, floods, droughts, and forest fires, among others—and will impair the ability of countries to meet the Paris Agreement goals.
4. Significantly, climate change, through heating of the planet, has been found to be a major cause of coronaviruses, such as those presently plaguing the globe, through the accelerated destruction of forests that cause increased exposure of humans to wild animals that carry the viruses.
5. Currently, the world is not on course to meet the well-below 2°C climate objective, and even further from attaining the aspirational target of limiting warming to 1.5°C Energy-related CO2 emission growth from 2014 to 2016 was flat, but estimated emission levels increased by 1.7% in 2018 to reach a historic high of 33.1 Gt, with the power sector accounting for nearly two-thirds of the emissions growth.4 While these results have been greatly reduced by the global economic shutdown resulting from SARS-CoV-2 (COVID 19), the virus-caused improvements will only be temporary unless countries reject the use of fossil fuels to power energy upon economic recovery, and instead adopt clean energy alternatives.
6. Only through delivering on the SDG 7 goals can the objectives of the Paris Agreement be met. The rapid deployment of renewables, coupled with energy efficiency, could achieve around 90% of the emission reductions in the energy sector needed by 2050, while also advancing economic growth and development.
7. Encouraging progress has been recorded in reaching several SDG 7 targets. The global population without access to electricity fell from about 1.2 billion in 2010 to around 789 million in 2018. Accelerating electrification growth between 2016 and 2018 delivered access to 137 million people on average each year as compared to 127 million between 2010 and 2016. There has also been rapid progress for renewables in electricity generation—close to 25% came from renewables in 2016, and for five consecutive years, more than half of new investments have gone into modern renewables, with renewable energy investments exceeding $300 billion annually.
8. Yet serious difficulties remain in adopting clean decarbonized energy sources at scale. Progress has been uneven in many areas, and urgent reinforced action is needed to achieve SDG 7 by 2030. With current trends, 620 million people, living predominantly in rural settlements in sub-Saharan Africa, are projected to remain without electricity in 2040. The share of renewables in final energy consumption increased from 16.3% in 2010 to only 17.2% in 2016. Close to 3 billion people do not have access to clean cooking solutions, resulting in close to 4 million premature deaths annually, with a disproportionate toll among women and children. To achieve universal electricity access, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, significant further efforts are required. Despite impressive growth in the use of modern renewables in the power sector, deployment is lagging well behind in end use sectors, with special regard to transport, industry, heating, and cooling. The rate of energy efficiency improvements is still below the required 2.6% per year to meet the global target. Improvement in global primary energy intensity has fallen over the last few years. Global primary energy intensity was 5.01MJ/USD (2011) on purchasing power parity (PPP) in 2017, a 1.7% improvement from 2016—the lowest rate of improvement since 2010. Technologies already exist to move toward a cleaner, decarbonized energy pathway. The price for solar photovoltaics (PV) dropped by 77% and for onshore wind by 38%.
9. Despite the progress in the power sector, smart-grid management challenges and long-term electricity storage remain major bottlenecks to a full transition to clean energy. Moreover, direct and indirect fossil fuel subsidies still by far exceed subsidies to renewable energy, slowing the spread of renewable energy sources. The transport sector remains massively reliant on fossil fuels. Global oil use may drop for personal vehicles, but fossil fuel demand for heavy duty road vehicles, ships, and aircrafts continues to push overall oil demand for transport on an upward trajectory. Global passenger demand is expected to increase the use of oil more than twofold between 2015 and 2050, with the bulk of growth occurring in developing economies. The positive impact of electric vehicles will hinge on the type of electric vehicle, the source of energy generation, driving conditions, charging patterns, and availability of charging infrastructure, government policies, and the local climate in the region of use. Promotion of public transportation and slow mobility, such as walking and biking, should be at the heart of transition strategies in the transport and energy sectors.
10. Between 1965 and 2015, the world’s per capita energy consumption increased from 1.3 to 1.9 tons of oil equivalent but individual average consumption is three to four times higher in developed countries, where progress in energy efficiency has been able to limit only the rate of growth of demand. Demand for energy is expected to increase by 25% in 2040, and the increase could be twice as large without continued improvements in energy efficiency.
11. According to the International Energy Agency, if annual investment in renewables does not at least double, fossil fuels will retain a predominant role in supplying up to 78% of total energy in 2030, and a similar share even in 2050.19 The direct consequence will be the persistence of health-damaging pollution from fossil fuel burning and increasing greenhouse gas emissions that will also make it impossible to reach the Paris Agreement objective of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
12. The share of electricity in global energy consumption is approaching 20% and is set to rise further. A doubling of electricity demand in developing economies puts cleaner, universally available, and affordable electricity at the centre of strategies for economic sustainable development and greenhouse gas emissions reduction provided that the electricity is not provided by fossil fuels. In that case, electrification brings benefits—both by reducing local pollution and climate change causation—and requires additional measures to decarbonize power supply if it is to unlock its full potential as a way to meet climate goals.
13. All the above statistics are temporarily distorted by the consequences of worldwide economic collapses due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with current fossil fuel demand dramatically decreased as a result. When the virus is finally resolved, and as economic recovery begins, the potential for progress is clear, but its realization is dependent on political will that is unfortunately unclear. The convergence of cheaper renewable energy technologies, digital applications, and the rising role of electricity are crucial vectors for change. Solutions need to be context specific with energy mixes, including decentralized renewable energies, emerging from the disruptive changes in energy production and consumption.
Implementing SDG 7 on the Ground: Case Studies
Expanding Access to Electricity and Clean Cooking Solutions—The Case of Viet Nam
14. Viet Nam witnessed a significant breakthrough in electricity access over the past decades. Between 2000 and 2016, access to electricity in Viet Nam increased from around 76% to an impressive 99% and the country is on a good track to ensuring that most rural households have access to electricity by 2020. Also, Viet Nam is 4th among the 20 countries with the fastest growing rates of access to clean cooking fuels. According to an International Energy Agency (IEA) report, Viet Nam’s cooking fuel access rate has reached 73% in 2018 compared with 14% in 2000.
15. Viet Nam’s progress in national electrification benefited from a variety of factors, such as extensive natural hydropower resources that allowed for the development of complementary off-grid hydropower systems at mini and pica scales; the important role of infrastructure in national development; and multiple funding sources, including those from overseas.
16. On top of that, rapid expansion of rural electrification was achieved, largely because it has been clearly stated as a national priority by the Government, responding to the unmet high demand for electricity. Viet Nam provides an example of how a government prioritized rural electrification and the substantive steps that were taken to make this priority a reality.
17. To achieve the goal of ensuring access to sustainable energy for all, Viet Nam has issued and enforced many important policies to meet the people’s and the nation’s socioeconomic development needs. A specific target for rural electrification was first introduced in 1996, aiming at achieving 100% electrification of districts, 80% of communes, and 60% of rural households by the year 2000. This was successfully achieved and later revised upward in successive Power Development Master Plans. Further, the latest Electricity Plan VII is aimed at “ensuring that most rural households have access to electricity by 2020,” which is aligned with the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. These high-level policy commitments helped to drive progress in the energy sector, with the policy on rural electrification appearing to have been strongly connected to other development strategies, including a national poverty reduction program. This is a practical approach for many developing countries to tackle energy poverty and its interlinkages with other development issues, such as health care and education.
18. The government policies and regulations were also flexible to tackling and adapting to changing challenges over time, fully considering its country’s conditions—focusing first on maximizing access to electricity and then on inclusion and quality. The establishment of Viet Nam’s strong national policy on rural electrification is coupled with an empowered national institution to head the electrification drive, which allowed Viet Nam to take advantage of its natural hydropower resources and develop the infrastructure that allowed this source of electricity to expand, first to its base of agriculture and industry, and then into every community and household.
19. Viet Nam’s achievement of exceptionally rapid rural electrification also demonstrates what can be done through the mobilization of local resources. Rural electrification in Viet Nam has been financed largely by local stakeholders. Investment in rural electrification totalled an estimated $10.3 billion over the period of 1990 to 2012, including approximately 50% from all levels of government. Some argue that Viet Nam’s policies for equitable access to electricity were partly a response to the experience of relying on local resources for electrification, which does not necessarily lead to a focus on providing access for the poorest. However, utilizing local resources may have been the most efficient way for a region where access to electricity was very low. Local institutions for the development and operation of rural electricity services could quickly respond to the local demand for energy, mobilize funds from both the government and private sector, and rapidly replicate the success stories to extend access of electricity and clean cooking solutions to large numbers of people, including those living in remote countryside areas. Driven by the need for technical standardization to improve efficiency of the electricity network and to lower the operating cost and improve the management of qualified service, the government could gradually step in to drive the transition from unplanned and unregulated local electricity services.
20. While Viet Nam has made progress on expanding access to electricity and clean cooking solutions, there remain challenges to future progress, such as fully achieving universal access to modern energy as the poorest households are still lagging behind; expanding access to clean cooking, as around 26 million people still rely on traditional use of biomass and inefficient cook stoves; ensuring a reliable energy supply in remote areas; and reforming electricity subsidies while protecting access for the poorest.33 To meet SDG7.1 targets, the Viet Nam Government is committed to further improve its institutional and policy system toward more sustainable energy production and use, in addition to continued investments in energy infrastructure with prioritized renewable energy development. Some portions of the Vietnamese experience with rural electrification are specific to the social, political, and cultural context of the country, but the majority of them are replicable. Sustained national commitment to electrification, coupled with dedicated rural electrification policy and institutions, are the keys to drive change. Viet Nam provides valuable lessons in balancing economic growth and poverty reduction with growing demand for energy and its sustainability.
Promoting Access with Renewable Electricity—The Case of Kenya
21. Renewable energy has contributed to Kenya’s electrification since 1980.34 According to Kenya’s 2017 energy report, about 70% of the nation’s electricity-installed capacity comes from renewable energy sources, which is three times more than the global average.36 Kenya has made remarkable progress in satisfying its domestic goals to reach 100% renewable energy by 2020, and to achieve universal access to electricity for all Kenyans by 2022, thereby setting an example to other developing countries of what can be done. In Kenya, hydro has been the crucial source for generating electricity with a long history. However, water stress caused by droughts has limited its ability to provide consistent electricity. Developers have already begun to tap into new energy opportunities, with geothermal leading the way. In December 2014, for the first time, power generation from geothermal sources in Kenya accounted for more than half of Kenya’s electricity output. Furthermore, the government has attempted to diversify the sources of renewable energy, including by developing wind, biomass, and solar.
22. Currently, the renewable energy supply in Kenya can be divided into two broad categories: On-grid renewable energy projects and off-grid projects. On-grid renewable energy projects are products for utility-scale and customer-scale applications where the power generated is sold to a variety of customers, including the utility. Off-grid renewable energy projects are usually implemented with mini-grids in rural areas that are difficult to connect to the national grid, including for individual households, communities, and institutions in rural areas. According to the Kenyan government, as of 2017, 73.5% of the population is connected to electricity compared to only 15% in 2004. This case study aims to summarize the factors and lessons that accounted for Kenya’s experience of promoting renewable energy electrification.