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Background

The UK water supply industry faces several challenges due to climate change, including increased water scarcity from warmer temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and more frequent and severe droughts. According to the 3rd UK Climate Change Risk Assessment‘Future projections of more frequent and intense dry periods lead to concerns around theavailability of public water supplies in future, especially in England and parts of Wales.Private water supplies are also at risk.1 ’ The UK also faces an increased demand for water, particularly in the southeast of England, where demand is already high.

Assignment

Your overall task is to assess the impacts of climate change on flow regime and water resources on the Derwent catchment (National River Flow Archive ref. no. 28001). Youshould provide a written summary of your approach and analysis of the future change in catchment flow regime under climate change and the implications for water resources,providing useful planning information to the water resources sector.

A) Rainfall simulation

You should construct a synthetic time-series of rainfall data using a stochastic time-series model, with statistical properties consistent with the historical rainfall data for thecatchment, representing a baseline for the climate change assessment. You should thenapply appropriate climate change projections to derive downscaled, perturbed time seriesof projected future rainfall (we recommend you assume the transition probabilities remainunchanged). You should use these simulations to provide an assessment of changes inrainfall under climate change and its impacts on the catchment’s hydrology and waterresources.

You should select ONE appropriate product from UKCP18 (e.g. from the probabilisticprojections or land projections from an appropriate resolution model), explaining yourchoice, and then analyse the projected changes for TWO scenarios - RCP8.5 plus oneother scenario. You should also quantify the uncertainties in each scenario by exploring the range of climate change projections for each e.g. an upper and lower estimate of change.

B) Modelling catchment river flow

C) Assessment of water resource

You should then run the baseline and projected future flows through a Pywr water resources simulation model for the Upper Derwent reservoirs, using the online platform WaterStrategy. Building on your understanding from the projected changes in rainfall andflows, you should then analyse the outputs from the water simulation to evaluate changesin water resource availability, for example in minimum and mean simulated reservoirstorage levels. You should describe and explain the projected changes, including ananalysis of the uncertainties.

Your report should explain your methodology and justify the methodological approach. It should be structured in a logical manner. Your conclusions should summarise your findings in the context of guidance to a water resources planner looking to quantify climate risk to water supplies, along with any methodological limitations and uncertainties in yourapproach and how you might address these in further work. You should also reflect on additional factors that you might consider important to improve modelling in future assessments and decision-making.

A summary of the workflow for this assignment is provided on the last page for your guidance.

Formatting and indicative marking schedule

Report format: the report should be a maximum of 4,000 words (excluding titles/contents, figure and table captions, and references) and use 11pt font with normal spacing.

Marking criteria and schedule: this coursework comprises 65% of the overall module assessment. It will be marked according to the standard SAgE faculty marking criteria (see information provided on Canvas) taking into account the following:

• presentation and structure of the report, including clear figures;
• ability to investigate a problem using an appropriate experimental approach. Credit will be given for going beyond the taught material, including additional methodological developments; ability to understand and apply relevant hydro-informatic models to derive appropriate quantitative outputs to support management of water resources;
• understanding of the basis for application of outputs from climate models to assess hydrological impacts; 
• clarity of overall argument, supported by evidence from modelling, and supported by references where appropriate.

Submission date: Monday 20 th January 2025, 2.00pm

Summary of workflow and models: