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ECO220Y5: Introduction to Data Analysis & Applied Econometrics
Data Project Two - Summer 2025
Have tariffs played a major role in the post-war American economy? Are they beneficial or a hinderance for USA economic success?
Project Overview
Your goal is to use economic and trade data from the USA to determine if tariffs have had a major role to play in the post-war American economy. You should comment on the articles which discuss the im- position and impact of USA tariffs since WWII.
You will use the ECO220 DataProject SUM2025.xlsx file provided. Continuing from your previous analysis you will produce additional evidence using your knowledge of statistical inference and linear regression. You must now include and discuss re- sults using multivariate regression techniques, for example: output tables, interpretation of coefficients, goodness of fit statistics, plots of residuals, etc. You should consider carefully the best specification and provide evidence (formal testing or analysis of plots) to support your model selec- tion. You should consider creating indicator variables that might be used to impact the intercept or as interaction terms. You should look for common violations of the OLS assumptions in your regressions such as heteroskedasticity, serial correlation and non-normality.
You should conclude using your model to determine whether tariffs have played a significant role in the economic success of the USA.
As with data project one, the data is a set of variables downloaded and combined mainly from the World Bank Open Data (https://data.worldbank.org/), the Federal Reserve database (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/), and the WTO Stats (https://stats.wto.org/). It comprises annual time series data for the United States.
A brief description of the variables is available in the excel file under the description tab (further description is available on the corresponding websites). Using suitable quantitative techniques from ECO220 describe some interesting characteristics of the vari- ables you decide to focus on. In interpreting, explaining and assessing the validity of your output, you should read the articles provided. Try to pick out variables that might be related in some way to the question and discuss these. You can also search out your own literature to guide your discussion but be sure to include any other sources in a bibliography. Avoid using any outside data as the goal of the project is to make your case using data analysis on the data you have been provided.
Project Submission
As with project 1, data project 2 will not be marked based on length but rather how well you addressed the question. Your submission should not exceed 1200 words of text and 4 pages of graphs and tables.
If it is written in a clear and concise style, and you have a good handle on generating useful graphs, this limit will be sufficient for a full mark. The final report should be submitted as a single written document in .pdf format and you must also include your DO file for Stata.