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IFB106TC, Demand Forecasting and Management
Assessment tasks:
1. We discussed several qualitative forecasting methods in the module. Give an example by use of the Delphi qualitative forecasting method, and state why you have to use the Delphi method. (no more than 200 words) (20 points)
2. Many companies provide stock market information on websites or apps, and also you can get other information from these websites or apps, like the 5-day average, 10-day average for a particular stock or an index. Do you think the moving average method is appropriate for this situation? State the reasons for your answers. (no more than 200 words) (20 points)
3. Assume a company has four suppliers to supply the company’s demand for its raw materials. Table 1 shows the monthly capacity of the four suppliers to produce units of raw materials demanded by the company.
Table 1: number of units of raw materials supplied by A, B, C, D to meet demand of the company.
|
Month |
Supplier A |
Supplier B |
Supplier C |
Supplier D |
|
2021-01 |
77 |
564 |
1610 |
4999 |
|
2021-02 |
84 |
514 |
1022 |
4452 |
|
2021-03 |
123 |
615 |
1719 |
2625 |
|
2021-04 |
109 |
593 |
1404 |
3338 |
|
2021-05 |
117 |
620 |
1755 |
3566 |
|
2021-06 |
174 |
649 |
1680 |
2934 |
|
2021-07 |
131 |
718 |
1431 |
2089 |
|
2021-08 |
121 |
675 |
1425 |
1839 |
|
2021-09 |
206 |
523 |
1711 |
1534 |
|
2021-10 |
197 |
648 |
1626 |
1668 |
|
2021-11 |
238 |
565 |
1669 |
1399 |
|
2021-12 |
285 |
636 |
1323 |
1425 |
|
2022-01 |
293 |
724 |
1188 |
757 |
|
2022-02 |
334 |
712 |
1032 |
1113 |
|
2022-03 |
461 |
596 |
1056 |
563 |
|
2022-04 |
303 |
734 |
1275 |
651 |
|
2022-05 |
617 |
519 |
1697 |
664 |
|
2022-06 |
612 |
592 |
1273 |
461 |
|
2022-07 |
622 |
514 |
1691 |
542 |
|
2022-08 |
512 |
562 |
1686 |
324 |
|
2022-09 |
980 |
686 |
1657 |
383 |
|
2022-10 |
950 |
563 |
1725 |
238 |
|
2022-11 |
1123 |
660 |
1322 |
227 |
|
2022-12 |
1007 |
739 |
1763 |
159 |
|
2023-01 |
1574 |
749 |
1495 |
140 |
|
2023-02 |
1278 |
544 |
1305 |
162 |
|
2023-03 |
1327 |
702 |
1179 |
126 |
|
2023-04 |
1801 |
734 |
1155 |
101 |
|
2023-05 |
1599 |
698 |
1532 |
140 |
|
2023-06 |
2295 |
639 |
1173 |
84 |
|
2023-07 |
3312 |
746 |
1403 |
67 |
|
2023-08 |
2992 |
530 |
1325 |
74 |
|
2023-09 |
4076 |
600 |
1379 |
49 |
|
2023-10 |
3207 |
668 |
1603 |
53 |
|
2023-11 |
4616 |
664 |
1715 |
44 |
|
2023-12 |
6146 |
536 |
1093 |
56 |
Unfortunately, none of four suppliers give you access to their informantion to know how many units of raw materials they will produce in the upcoming months (note that we assume that we are in the first month of 2024 now).
Please use the information provided above to answer the following questions.
a. First, find Mean and Standard Deviation for each one of four suppliers using excel software. Second, preper a time-series plot of supply data for each one of four suppliers using Excel. (30 points)
b. Analyse the trend of data for each of four suppliers. Does there appear to be additive or multiplative patterns in the data for any of suppliers? Explain. (no more than 200 words). (30 points)